30 °C Manila, PH
February 12, 2025

Leechiu makes fearless forecast of 6M arrivals by year-end

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Leechiu Property Consultants, a leading property consultancy firm in the Philippines, just revealed its fearless forecast of 6M for the international arrivals in 2024, and it is not anywhere near Department of Tourism’s (DOT) projected numbers of 7.7M. In fact, based on a scientific calculation by the company wherein a 9.5 % increase year-on-year is envisioned, the DOT forecast is only attainable by the year 2027.

“When we look into the future, this is what I was talking about before. Between 2022 to 2023 was a really major recovery from the Covid pandemic, we made big strikes 100% and 5% increases last year. It means essentially that we won’t hit the 8.26M arrivals of 2019 and can only be reached somewhere between 2027 and 2028,” revealed Alfred Lay, Leechiu’s Director for Hotels, Tourism & Leisure.

“Essentially, Covid cost us right years of tourism growth. Without Covid, we may have already 10 million. Many countries are still battling to get back the numbers they lost,” he added.

Another big factor is the closure of all China-established POGO outlets in the country that was found out to be mostly engaged in illegal activities. During its height, the country had around 1.74M Chinese visitors. 

Even if growth in other source markets continues to grow, it has not been sufficient to compensate for the record Chinese arrivals in that contributed to the 8.26 M arrivals in 2019.

Top 5 source markets remain  South Korea, USA, Japan, China, and Australia.

DOT has since endeavored to court the Indian market by issuing an E-Visa facility, and instituting a VAT refund as well as improving the arrival experience by overhauling NAIA operations through a private sector engagement.

The DOT will have media conference in a few days for a year-end briefing to showcase its accomplishments in 2024 and outline its plans for 2025.


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